Story submitted by Cornelis de Jager
(past president ICSU;past pres. COSPAR)
In a recent publication entitled Terrestrial ground temperature variation in relation to solar magnetic variability, including the present Schwabe cycle, Cornelis (Kees) de Jager and Hans Nieuwenhuijzen, from the Space Research Organisation of the Netherlands have analysed the dependence of the global earth temperature on the polar as well as the equatorial magnetic fields. The new aspect in this research is that all earlier investigations in this field only sought for the dependence of the terrestrial ground temperature on the number of sunspots, which is a “proxy” for the equatorial magnetic fields of the sun. But the sun has two big magnetic areas, the equatorial and the polar one. In this research both are included.
In their analysis the Utrecht scientists restricted to the relatively long-term variation of both fields as well as the temperature, such in order to exclude short-term phenomena such as temperature variations due to volcanoes or processes like El-Nino.
By including the two magnetic field areas in their analysis it could be shown that during the major part of the four centuries investigated, i.e. the period 1610 till around 1900 – 1950 , the average terrestrial ground temperatures depend solely on solar magnetic field variations. After 1900 there is an increasing excess in the temperature which is ascribed to anthropogenic activity. After the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20thb century the sun went through an exceptional, not before observed phase transition that lasted relatively long, i.e. from about 2005 till 2010.
Usually, the transitions between solar variability phases takes no more than one to two years. During that transition period and after that, solar activity was exceptionally low. The consequent small contribution to the terrestrial temperatures is the cause for the standstill in the rise of temperature observed since the middle of the 20th century.
The above can be illustrated in figure 1, the diagram shows three curves. The middle one is the average terrestrial ground temperature (dots) through which a smoothed average curve is drawn .(The LOWESS technique is used for smoothing). The upper line shows the solar contribution and the bottom curve is the difference between the two. It shows a nearly flat variation which demonstrates that the long-term component of terrestrial temperatures is solely due to the variation of the sun’s magnetic fields. The average “zero-line” show a very slow , yet unexplained, increase over the centuries.
The paper is published in Natural Science vol. 5, pp. 1112- 1120, 2013 (open access). It can also be consulted at http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-CdeJ-HN-Sun-climate-NS-5-1112.pdf
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“It shows a nearly flat variation which demonstrates that the long-term component of terrestrial temperatures is solely due to the variation of the sun’s magnetic fields”. No it doesn’t. “Is solely due to” is wrong as it implies a causality. All it really shows is that the two appear to be correlated to some degree.
De nieuw Hockey Stick?
“The consequent small contribution to the terrestrial temperatures is the cause for the standstill in the rise of temperature observed since the middle of the 20th century.”
_____________________
That’s a bold statement.
pimf
[? Mod]
“After 1900 there is an increasing excess in the temperature which is ascribed to anthropogenic activity.”
Asserted, not proven, and even the assertion leaves things such as land-use, soot, and other anthropogenic factors to be possible causes, not merely CO2 (although no doubt the CAGW crowd will insist that it’s all CO2.)
Looks like their temperature record was provided by MM.
Not surprising to anyone not looking for a government grant…
“After 1900 there is an increasing excess in the temperature which is ascribed to anthropogenic activity. After the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20thb century the sun went through an exceptional, not before observed phase transition that lasted relatively long, i.e. from about 2005 till 2010.
Usually, the transitions between solar variability phases takes no more than one to two years. During that transition period and after that, solar activity was exceptionally low. The consequent small contribution to the terrestrial temperatures is the cause for the standstill in the rise of temperature observed since the middle of the 20th century.”
Strange that they attribute the increase from 1900 to anthropogenic activity then in the next sentence note “the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20th century”.
As for the standstill this century, the other way of looking at it, is that solar activity has actually been relatively high to be able to maintain temperatures until the decrease in solar activity which really began in 2008 from the weak and long minimum onwards:
http://snag.gy/nf9SK.jpg
“The average “zero-line” show a very slow , yet unexplained, increase over the centuries.”
There are two centuries where it is flat as a pancake, i.e. from 1730 to 1930, here is CET for that period: http://snag.gy/2q2kT.jpg
Current paradigm for CAGWers regarding the sun is that its influence on climate is negligible (sic), as this makes it easy to put the blame on 20th century warming on CO2. However, I predict a 180º turn regarding this point, as temperatures continue to reject to climb up in the next years. When this happens, they will want to blame the sun, saying things like “if it weren’t for the current quiet sun, temperatures would be this much hotter” and “once the sun activity returns to normal we are all gonna fry”.
By including the two magnetic field areas in their analysis it could be shown that during the major part of the four centuries investigated, i.e. the period 1610 till around 1900 – 1950 , the average terrestrial ground temperatures depend solely on solar magnetic field variations. After 1900 there is an increasing excess in the temperature which is ascribed to anthropogenic activity.
That sounds like “It wasn’t the sun, so it has to be anthropogenic! We can’t think of anything else it could be.”
Nylo says:
October 31, 2013 at 5:05 am
___________________
The warmists have been making those claims about “quiet sun” for quite some time. Correlation still doesn’t equal causation.
Exactly how did they extract the data for the two magnetic field areas in the [17th] century?
Mod – please correct above to 17th century. Ta.
Yeah, I’ve seen some making comments along those lines, but the CAGW crowd have dug themselves into a deep hole by denying solar forcings for years. Judith Curry writes about it here:
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/
I think the Hockey Team & their ilk are still more focused upon the “missing heat hiding in the deep ocean” line of argument & are turning their backs to solar variability, which they (nor anyone else) really understands.
Incoming Leif!
A bit confusing is the fact that De Jager in this paper says that the uptick in global temperature in the 20th century ‘most probably’ has an anthropogenic origin, without proving that statement. This rebuts an earlier publication of De Jager et al ( see http://dare.uva.nl/document/190066 ) , in which the anthropogenic component wasn’t underlined as strongly. In his new paper De Jager writes about the polar influences: “Yet, the total polar flux is comparable in magnitude with the total equatorial one and offhand it does not seem that it wouldn’t affect terrestrial climate.”. Well, that is at least hypothetic!
In the second part of the paper De Jager turns to the current cycle 24. He recognizes ‘trasition points’, the latest took place between 2005-2010. De Jager predicts a phase of Regular Oscillations, there is no new Maunder Minimum in prospect. This is another aspect in which De Jager breaks with his preceding papers. Is this a cosequence of progress in scientific knowledge, or is the polair component of the sun’s activity not such a reliable proxie?
Yes!!!!!!!! I was waiting for this angle of research to follow recent solar corona discoveries to explain heat generation in both incidences of magnetic field effects. Physics is preserved.
My problem with the paper is:
After the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20th century
There was no such thing. See e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf
I have a problem with this paper. I am not comfortable with the temperature record as shown. It looks more like a Micheal Mann product than a true temperature record.
With that said, I do believe that there IS a direct relationship between solar activity and Earth’s temperature, and solar magnetic fields could be a potential mechanism. However this paper does not fill me with confidence. I would love to see a Steve McIntyre audit of this paper.
Look how nicely those lines match each other, along with the up-tick at the end. Clearly another clear case of our carbon pollution influencing the sun. If only the heroic, Nobel-prize-winning Michael Mann had known about this research earlier, why nobody except those Koch-funded righties would be able to deny his hockey stick…
Dr. Svalgaard,
Thanks for linking again to your Powerpoint, it is very informative and a rare opportunity for the public. However, without the narrative that you would no doubt provide in a presentation, it can be a little confusing following the thread. Can you show or explain what Slide 4 would look like after you have removed the artifacts from the sunspot count changes? Would you also refute a claim that the temperature rise since the Maunder was associated with an increase in TSI? Do you think there is any aspect of TSI that correlates to a hiatus in the LIA recovery around 1890? Thanks in advance!
the paper says
After 1900 there is an increasing excess in the temperature which is ascribed to anthropogenic activity. After the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20thb century the sun went through an exceptional, not before observed phase transition that lasted relatively long, i.e. from about 2005 till 2010.
henry says
ja ja
nou weer die domme hollanders…
I agree with DontGetOutMuch
the times
they are
aaah, ehhh
cooling
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2014/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
Unbeleivably
I also agree with Leif
“After the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20thb century the sun went through an exceptional, not before observed phase transition that lasted relatively long, i.e. from about 2005 till 2010”
Headline at Skeptical Science:
Man made CO2 is effecting the Sun’s magnetic field!
I’m sure glad they got rid of that historical 800-year lag between CO2 and temperature increase. For a moment there I was sure the glaciers were lying to us.
/sarc.
Leif Svalgaard’s post here is right on.
@kcrucible, the Dutch are an odd folk, but their English is usually outstanding, and well-versed in the connotative meanings of words, (perhaps since Dutch is quite idiomatically rich). All that aside they used ascribed which I believe they are using the fancy term for ‘assigned to’. Hence, they could be entirely agreeing with you!